2009 Financial Industry Outlook
Challenging times, emerging opportunities
In 2009, the United States must deal with some of the greatest economic challenges encountered in two generations: Financial markets are in turmoil; prices for oil and other commodities are fluctuating wildly; housing, automotive and other industries are fighting for survival; more than 10 million people are unemployed — the litany of woes continues as the U.S. and other nations slip into a global recession. Yet, there are positive signs of opportunity: Medical and technology advances are continuing apace; greening initiatives are moving forward; a new President and Congress are taking office amid high expectations for change; and governments, corporations and citizens around the world are collaborating to identify real and lasting solutions to today’s and tomorrow’s challenges.
Economic Crisis
No one, it seems, is immune to the economic meltdown afflicting the United States and countries around the world. What started as a credit issue in the small, subprime part of the mortgage market quickly extended to all corners of the economy. As of this writing, consumer spending had sunk by the most since 2001, jobless claims were at recession levels, factory orders continued to fall and new-home sales were at a nearly 18-year low.
Global credit problems that began in the U.S. residential subprime market have spilled over into the commercial Real Estate industry’s debt markets, resulting in suppressed transaction volumes and limited access to financing. The Retail industry is clearly feeling the effects of the consumer cash and credit crunch, as many retailers find themselves confronted by liquidity issues, reduced consumer spending, and weak credit market conditions. In fact, after what may have been the worst holiday-shopping season in 40 years, analysts estimate earnings at U.S. retailers will fall 20 percent in 2009.
As difficult as it can be to see the forest for the trees, organizations in all industries must look to the future even as they battle to survive the current reality. Signs of hope are emerging: President-elect Barack Obama has pledged to have a major economic stimulus package in place early in his presidency, and he has assembled a team of top economic advisors. He also has said a top priority will be to enact a stimulus package with a goal of creating 2.5 million new jobs over the next two years. In late November, the government announced an $800 billion effort to encourage more consumer lending in the form of auto loans, credit cards and mortgages.
Talent Challenges
It is ironic that even in a period of escalating unemployment – non farm payroll employment fell by 240,000 in October 2008, and the unemployment rate rose from 6.1 to 6.5 percent – companies in many industries continue to have difficulty attracting and retaining high-quality employees.
Demographic changes in the U.S. work force – including increasing numbers of baby boomer retirements and potential shortages of next-generation talent – are elevating labor costs and requiring employers to implement innovative programs to retain, develop and motivate high-quality employees.
In 2009, virtually all sectors will need to balance their long-term talent demands with short-term needs to right-size their work force in an effort to offset the economic downturn. Of great importance is developing innovative programs to tap into a new generation of employees. Companies should emphasize flexibility, training and career-life balance if they hope to attract and retain desirable talent.
The Opportunity for Leadership
One possible interpretation of “May you live in interesting times” takes its lead from the Chinese saying "时势造英雄"(pin-yin:shi shi zao ying xiong), which means heroes (leaders) are made over turbulent times.
Anticipated challenges of 2009 will provide ample opportunities for executives, government officials and citizens to demonstrate leadership, determination, collaboration and foresight as they develop solutions to spur the United States’ economic recovery and future growth.
Source:
As used in this document, “Deloitte” means Deloitte LLP and its subsidiaries.
Please see www.deloitte.com/us/about for a detailed description of the legal structure of Deloitte LLP and its subsidiaries. http://www.bls.gov/cps/
Galante, Joseph and Katie Hoffman, “Global Corporate Profits to Drop in ’09; More Bankruptcies Loom,” Bloomberg.com. Published January 5, 2009.
Rugaber, Christopher S., “Stocks gain, trouble lurks,” Associated Press, published in The Kentucky Enquirer, November 27, 2008
News release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor, November 7, 2008
As a company, we want to lead the charge by providing cost-efficient alternative services and resource options, to meet the high demands for top industry talent in today's competitive job market. Sign up to find your Ideal Job
For additional information on EMACJobs.com’s services and solutions, please email us at info@emacjobs.com
back to top
